Showing posts with label Testing psychics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Testing psychics. Show all posts

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

Its Time For Believers in Mediumship to Face Harsh Facts.

Actor Rafe Spall, about to appear in a ITV drama about paranormal investigator Harry Price,  recently made some not too favourable comments in an interview with digital spy regarding mediums and in particular the psychic industry:
"In research for this, I watched a lot of mediums - Colin Fry, Derek Acorah, Mystic Mary - and it raises many interesting ethical questions... Because obviously it's not real. It's manipulation and it's make-believe. But they're not messing with people, they're not frightening them, they're giving them comfort. The people who come to these shows are in desperate pain, delirious with grief, and they need some comfort. But... they're paying for tickets, and these mediums are making - as Harry Price said - a fat living preying on bereavement. It's the misery industry - you're making money out of people's misery, which is very questionable.They're giving people hope and when people are in agony, who am I to say that they shouldn't be doing it? But do it for free. Use your 'powers' to connect with the afterlife pro-bono, then we're all good. Go and do a normal job [as well] - something else that is befitting of monetary reward."
Of course this comment hasn't been met with rapturous applause by all sections of the internet. In fact some believers, and hopefuls,  in psychic abilities are livid with Spall. Much of the criticism was levelled at Spall's lack of expertise in the field. These examples taken from the Society of Psychical Research's facebook page 




The problem with comments like this is two-fold. Firstly we have no idea how much research Spall did for the role. Its possible that he has been looking into this for some time. Sure he only name checks three psychics, but should we reasonably expect him to remember and list every single psychic he has read about or watched? Of course not. He is simply using these names as an example of the kind of mediumship he is discussing. The second, and more troubling problem with attacking his lack of expertise, is he's not actually wrong! The "psychic industry" does profit from the bereaved. From the outside, to an unbeliever, this seems like a heartless practice. Believers should find Spall's comments troubling, because that's the conclusion many of us have come to after years of investigation into psychics and mediums.

I decided to look into commenter Chris's claims of research into the physic abilities and found a write up of one of his tests in "Psychic News". The write up exemplifies many of the problems that ocur when mediums and believers conduct their own psychic testing.  The test he performs is some what interesting, but ultimately not performed under anything close to strict conditions, as he concedes himself in the piece. One massively glaring error in his protocol being, the psychics and non psychics are placed in seperate groups. They then proceed to "read" the others in their group. There's no potential for blinding here the psychics know they are in the psychic group and rate their readings higher. As this rating is done by tallying the amount of correct statements, which is highly subjective, there's nothing to prevent bias. Likewise, the non-psychics are aware they are in a non-psychic grouping, and are not expecting correcting readings, therefore not subjecting the reading to the same psychological manipulation that make "genuine psychic readings" seem accurate to the sitter.

I may well look at the test in greater detail over the next week or so, but its not from malice I say this, sorry but this isn't research. Its mucking about in the village hall. Twenty years of this aren't going to overturn hundreds of years of legitimate research in fields such as psychology and neuroscience which offer rational explanations for psychic phenomena.

Getting professional psychics to engage in legitimate testing is nigh-impossible. The big-names simply avoid controlled conditions like the plague. Semi-professional and amateur psychics, many of them "shut-eyes" who legitimately believe their own claims, that have engaged in testing fail to show positive results under tight controls. Positive results that are attained disappear in replication with said controls in place. See here and here for example.

But does the discovery of fake psychics through such testing logically lead to the conclusion that all psychics are fake? Blogger Ian Wardle says no, making this analogy:

"If we lived in a world where £20 notes didn't exist then it is likely there would also be no counterfeit £20 notes either. There would be no purpose in counterfeit £20 notes since no one would be fooled by them. However in our world where £20 notes exist and they are in demand, then inevitably there will be many counterfeit £20 notes.
Similar reasoning applies to psychics, albeit to a lesser degree. That is to say in world "a" there will be fake psychics, but it seems clear to be that they will not be as numerous as fake psychics in world "b".
The major problem with this analogy being: we actually see real twenty pound notes. They massively out number the counterfeit ones. We use the qualities of the real twenty pound note to distinguish between a real and fake one. We can't use the qualities of a real psychic to identify a fake psychic, as we simply don't know of any real psychics.

He continues
In addition they sometimes use the argument that since every psychic they have heard about turns out to be a charlatan, then it is reasonably, via induction, to infer there are no genuine psychics. But this is rather like a person flicking through a wad of £20 notes, carefully removing the counterfeit notes which are fairly easy to discern with the naked eye, and then declaring that since every note they've examined so far is counterfeit, it's reasonable to infer they all are! 
But Ian, our wad of psychics would contain only counterfeits, as that is all we would know of, we wouldn't flick though it at all, we'd discard it. It would be reasonable to infer all £20 notes were fake if no one knew of a real one!

By definition the term "fake twenty" would be meaningless in a world with no real twenties!


Arguments such as Ian's are common place and amount to nothing more than claiming that we can't dismiss the existence of psychic abilities until we've tested every single person, and parrot, who claims to possess them. Imagine this blanket refusal to accept the null-hypothesis in another field of science, should physicists still desperately search for the luminiferous ether for example? You can thus bin any of the advancements in physics made since the mid-eighteen hundreds in that case. Which come to think about it is roughly the time of the birth of spiritualism when the Fox sisters first foisted this psychic deception on the world.

Until some actual plausible positive results regarding psychic abilities are born from legitimate and well designed studies then we simply can't accept the phenomena exists, meaning we would have to conclude Spall is correct. But there's the ethical aspect to consider too.

Does consultation with a psychic help the grieving person come to terms with their loss?

I'd argue not, but I'm aware the the grieving process is a complicated thing and I'm not a psychologist or a grief counsellor.... but neither are most mediums. Can they be sure that their proclamations about dead loved ones don't damage the grieving process?

Look at the description of the first stage of the commonly accepted five stages of grief:

"The first reaction to learning of terminal illness or death of a cherished loved one is to deny the reality of the situation. It is a normal reaction to rationalize overwhelming emotions. It is a defense mechanism that buffers the immediate shock. We block out the words and hide from the facts. This is a temporary response that carries us through the first wave of pain."


Does it not seem like the words of a psychic, though they maybe comforting at the time, allows the grieving to linger in this stage of grief perpetually? This could well explain why so many people habitually revisit psychics and mediums, its to keep the denial strong, to ward harsh reality away. Its a cruel comfort indeed in that case.

And to charge for this comfort, especially if based on falsehood is callous.

A beautiful lie is a lie non the less.

Until evidence is provided otherwise every word Spall said seems correct. Believers can baulk all they like. Shut-eye psychics can deny it and claim to help, the sad truth is those individuals aren't just deceiving the grieving, they are deceiving themselves too. Those who offer these "services" for free may be excuse of monetary exploitation, but the potential for harm is the same.

Wednesday, 18 June 2014

The Source of Denial.

Let me pose you a question:
If I had a product that I was offering, for free, every day on a social media, and you came along and said "That's an interesting product, do you mind if I take some of that free product and do some tests on it?" and my response was to say "No I don't think this product is for you!" and then kicked you from the group, what would your view be of that product?

You probably wouldn't trust it, right? You'd probably feel justified warning people to be wary accepting the product. You'd probably feel that testing was desperately needed. Right?

Anyway....

Readers of this blog who have come here from my Facebook page The Rational Paranormal or one of the many links I post on Facebook, are probably well aware of my plans to run a test of psychics who offer readings of "selfies" on various pages. If you've not come across this practice before (and you probably won't have unless you visit paranormal/psychic pages) here's how they tend to go:
























This initial post is then normally followed by a series of individuals, claiming psychic abilities, giving readings about the sitter's personal circumstances, the personality or their deceased loved ones. I'm sure that you can see there is an immediate glaring issue here. Photos are linked to Facebook account, meaning that much of the information that is given COULD, potentially, be gleaned by a little to the sitter's Facebook profile, or searching the sitter's name on other social media. Also the provision of a photograph gives ample opportunity to do some cold-reading.

Now I decided to design a test which would minimise the opportunity for psychics to glean information from the sitter's Facebook. Would receive the sitter's "selfie", check it is non-searchable, assign it a random number from 1-100 using a random number generator, and then pass the corresponding "selfies" to the 10 numbers the psychic being tested selects.

The full protocol will be posted to this page in a few days hopefully, but what I am sure is abundantly clear is that I will need at least 100 viable "selfies"/sitters, and some psychics to test. On the sitters front this has been ticked over quite nicely. I've posted about this on a few Facebook pages and I've received a steady amount of volunteers since then. The psychics, unfortunately, have been less keen to participate.

Now, I am aware that I don't have much to offer as a reward here. Unlike Skeptic supreme, James Randi, I don't have a $1,000,000 reward on offer. What I am offering however is a small source of validation. The opportunity to at least demonstrate that there may be an iota of truth to the claim they are making. Surely that's worth something? And as they are offering these readings for free anyway, there's no loss. They would only be doing what they are doing anyway, just with no searchable information.

This message was posted to two of the largest groups on Facebook offering readings on photographs and selfies:

"Hi Guys, thanks for the add. Hope I'm OK plugging this here. I am looking at organising a test for psychics who offer readings via photographs on Facebook. 
 I Should be ready to post my testing protocol for social media psychics, who claim to be ale to give readings from photographs, to my blog (http://skepticsboot.blogspot.co.uk/) within the next few days. I'll be looking for upwards of a hundred unique "selfies" never posted to social media before to be read. And of course I'll be needing psychics to take part in the test. Know any that claim this ability? Or anyone who is willing to submit a selfie and receive a reading (or ten)? Send them here!https://www.facebook.com/rationalparanormal"
In both cases the poster was immediately blocked from said group.  And we are talking within minutes here. Its almost as if  the admins didn't want their users, who between them offer hundreds of readings per day, to see the test. Or was it because these admins themselves claim these abilities and don't want to have to explain to their members why they declined to take place.

Here's the message I received when I posted the above request to the Facebook page Spirit Source:


Now take a look a some of the readings offered on the page, I would say they fit exactly the criteria of my test! Is it relevant where "on their journey" a psychic is? If they are claiming an ability, and using it to do readings everyday then what difference does doing it within the parameters of the test make?










Photo to be read.                                                           Reading given

                     


        





Wait!
Who is that giving the last reading? Its Kerry Carter who told me the group wasn't the target audience for my test, at 11:19 pm on 13th June despite that fact that she had herself been performing the exact act required by the test a few hours previous!

So who was Kerry protecting her novice users or herself?

The worst thing about all this is that some of the stories related on these pages are absolutely heart breaking, grieving parents, siblings, children....there are some people genuinely suffering here and looking for help. The individuals on these sites that are more than prepared to use their vaunted "powers" to intervene in delicate and intimate situations, but aren't prepared to show that they actual exist in the first place are exactly the type that we should be steering people away from. Because I suspect that they are the ones who know or suspect that they are playing make-believe games with people's lives.

If you are interested in submitting a "selfie" for reading, or you consider yourself to genuinely psychic and aren't afraid to put that to the test contact me here:  https://www.facebook.com/rationalparanormal

I hope to have the full testing protocol posted here very soon.